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REPORT: Potential of Technologies for Displacing Gasoline Consumption by Light-Duty Vehicles through 2045

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Program (VTP) supports new technologies to increase energy security in the transportation sector at a critical time for global petroleum supply, demand, and pricing. VTP works in collaboration with industry to identify the priority areas of research needed to develop advanced vehicle technologies to reduce and eventually eliminate petroleum use, and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide from carbon-based fuels. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the benefits of the DOE VTP for a wide range of vehicle applications, powertrain configurations and component technologies for different timeframes and quantify the potential future petroleum displacement up to 2045 as well as the cost evolution.  While it is not possible to simulate all the different combinations, more than 2000 vehicles were simulated in the study to take the following into account:

  • Major vehicle classes (i.e., compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], large SUV and pickup)
  • Major powertrain configurations (i.e., conventional, power-split, series and battery electric drive)
  • Major fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, hydrogen and ethanol)

The report evaluates the impact of numerous technology improvements on:

  • Component sizes (i.e., power, energy, weight)
  • Fuel and electrical consumption
  • Manufacturing cost

Results demonstrate that the combination of the technology improvements leads to significant fuel consumption and cost reduction across light duty vehicle applications. This research will be updated on a yearly bases to include the latest powertrain technologies (i.e., multi-mode HEV, E-REV…), component technologies, as well as additional timeframes (i.e., 2020) and vehicle applications.

2014 Report Download:

2011 Report Download:

Last update November 2014


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